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Global 5G market development trends

  • Categories:News Center
  • Time of issue:2021-01-27 16:18
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(Summary description) After 2020, the number of connected terminals will increase to 5 billion. In addition, mobile applications drive bandwidth requirements, such as ultra-high-quality images 4K, 8K, virtual reality, 3D stereoscopic image display, etc., will drive mobile data traffic in 2020 This is 1,000 times that of 2010. However, in order to cope with the challenges brought by 5G networks, countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe have each established a next-generation mobile communication technology development alliance, so as to master the development of key technologies before international standards have been established, and establish their own 5G technologies , To protect the commercial interests of the country or manufacturers in the 5G market.

Global 5G market development trends

(Summary description) After 2020, the number of connected terminals will increase to 5 billion. In addition, mobile applications drive bandwidth requirements, such as ultra-high-quality images 4K, 8K, virtual reality, 3D stereoscopic image display, etc., will drive mobile data traffic in 2020 This is 1,000 times that of 2010. However, in order to cope with the challenges brought by 5G networks, countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe have each established a next-generation mobile communication technology development alliance, so as to master the development of key technologies before international standards have been established, and establish their own 5G technologies , To protect the commercial interests of the country or manufacturers in the 5G market.

  • Categories:News Center
  • Author:Chen Meiling
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2021-01-27 16:18
  • Views:
Information

1 Introduction
  After 2020, the number of connected terminals will increase to 5 billion. In addition, mobile applications drive bandwidth requirements, such as ultra-high-quality images 4K, 8K, virtual reality, 3D stereoscopic image display, etc., will drive mobile data traffic in 2020 This is 1,000 times that of 2010. However, in order to cope with the challenges brought by 5G networks, countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe have each established a next-generation mobile communication technology development alliance, so as to master the development of key technologies before international standards have been established, and establish their own 5G technologies , To protect the commercial interests of the country or manufacturers in the 5G market.

  Regarding the International Standards Organization’s planning timeline for 5G, the "IMT for 2020 And Beyond" Working Party (WP) under ITU-R (International Telecommunication Unit Radiocommunication Sector; International Telecommunication Union Wireless Communication Group) has entered the 5G requirements review in 2015. It is expected that the standard formulation will begin in 2017, and the standard will be optimized in 2019, with the goal of entering the deployment of 5G commercial systems in 2020.

  3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) plans to discuss the scope and requirements of 5G in the second half of 2015, conduct technical evaluations from mid-2016 to mid-2018, and discuss 5G technical standards from mid-2018 to 2020, so as to reach 2020. The goal of commercialization of 5G networks is the need for a large number of 5G networks to be built in 2022-2023.

2. 5G Vision and Application Scenario
2.1 5G Vision

  Since 2013, various organizations have struggled to set goals for 5G mobile communication networks. In order to achieve 5G application scenarios, 5G must provide high transmission rates. Currently, South Korea 5G Forum, Japan ARIB, Mainland China IMT-2020, EU METIS and other organizations emphasize each The user's experience transmission rate can reach 1-10Gbps to meet the evolving needs of imaging technology.

  In order for users to have a good service experience, it is necessary to provide low latency. It is emphasized that 5G needs to be below 1ms, so that users will not experience delays when performing services. In order to extend and stabilize 5G services, it is emphasized that energy efficiency must be continuously improved. Among them, METIS proposes that energy consumption needs to be reduced by more than 10% compared to the current one. In addition, organizations also emphasize the importance of connection density and traffic density, so that each base station and area can ensure that a certain number of terminals can be connected to the mobile communication network.


  At the beginning of 2015, ITU-R first proposed a version of 5G vision, including peak transmission rate of 20Gbps, user experience rate of 100-1,000Mbps, spectrum efficiency of 2 times/3 times/5 times, mobility of 500 kilometers per hour, The latency is 1ms, the connection density is up to 100,000 terminals per square kilometer, the network energy efficiency is increased by 100 times, and the regional transmission capacity is 10Mbps per square meter. These eight major indicators are focused on improving IMT-Advanced.


Table 1 IMT-2020 Vision

2.2 5G application scenarios
  Although the 5G vision has eight major indicator requirements, they can be summarized into three main application scenarios: high transmission volume, large connections, ultra-low latency & ultra-high reliability.


(1) Ultra-high throughput

Ultra-high-quality images and ultra-real-time applications require higher transmission speeds, at least 12Mbps to be smooth
3D requires a transmission rate greater than 12Mbps, UHD (Ultra High Definition) requires greater than 32Mbps, virtual reality (Virtual Reality) requires greater than 80Mbps, and three-dimensional images (Hologram) requires 120Mbps

(2) Big link
The Internet of Things needs to process a large amount of data and emphasizes stability
Disaster relief is one of the key applications of the Internet of Things, which emphasizes that the network is ready at any time, high stability, and reduces the cost of sensors and provides universal infrastructure
(3) Ultra-low latency & ultra-high reliability
Because of the mobility requirements, the Internet of Vehicles will be the first service to be realized in the 5G application scenario, and it will develop towards autonomous driving
The Internet of Vehicles must integrate and connect the network, meet high mobility, reduce latency, ultra-low-cost sensors, build infrastructure, and ensure the connection between the car and the car, the car and the terminal, and the car and infrastructure. Energy-saving driving development

2.3 5G application services
  In the development direction of 5G potential application services, it emphasizes real-time, large-scale, co-location, and multi-person data transmission. The current 5G-locked application services include smart connected cars, smart medical care, smart education, emergency evacuation services, gaming services, smart home/home Security. Among them, smart connected cars, smart medical care, smart education, and emergency evacuation all require the construction of infrastructure and the popularization of low-cost terminals. This has great relevance to social welfare. It is estimated that the government will play an important role in 5G application services. The role also represents that 5G is the core of future social development and industrial competition in advanced countries. In addition to the obvious improvement in transmission speed and transmission image quality, the advantages of 5G also provide stable transmission advantages in fast-moving scenarios, which will promote 5G application services to become more popular and widespread. For example, through the deployment of related detection and image transmission systems in ambulances, in a busy car array, 5G image transmission and video conferencing can be used to communicate with local medical institutions to provide patients with more immediate treatment and increase survival Rate, this is the application of combining transportation and medical treatment. In terms of smart education, students and the public will be able to learn all the time through various images, such as interpreting historical stories through technologies such as virtual reality and three-dimensional images, so that users can have a very real experience as if they are on the scene; or When the teacher teaches from a distance, the combination of three-dimensional images makes students feel that the teacher is teaching on the spot, and the dialogue and interaction are the same as the real environment. In terms of emergency rescue, it will ensure that the sensors in each field can maintain real-time connections in the most energy-efficient way. Once the data collected by the sensors is returned to the cloud database for analysis, it is predicted or found When an emergency occurs, you can quickly report back to relevant units (such as security, police, fire department, hospital, etc.) for handling, so as to avoid or reduce the incidence of accidents and the degree of injury.


3. Leading operators to focus on 5G technology needs
3.1 SK Telecom
  South Korea will showcase 5G experimental networks at the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, prompting the country’s industry players to actively deploy 5G networks, among which SK Telecom aims to become the world’s first operator to provide 5G commercial networks.


  SK Telecom’s current 5G development focus is on the next generation of Small cells, Ultra wideband, low latency (data transmission less than 1ms), FDD/TDD integration, Gigabyte speed data transmission, etc., all of which are evolving to 5G networks Necessary key.


  SK Telecom proposed the concept of super cell, which is mainly composed of large-scale base station resources, small cells, and new frequency bands, from Smart (strengthening mobility/capacity through control and data segmentation) and Unified (heterogeneous network combination). Cloud architecture), Performance Optimized (dynamic interference coordination and management), Energy Efficient (green architecture, energy saving), Reconfigurable (combined with SON to change the network operation mode) to achieve 100 times the capacity and 10 Times of cost reduction.

  In the evolution of the RAN (Radio Access Network) architecture, SKT will evolve from the traditional architecture to SCAN (Smart Cloud Access Network), by separating DU/RU (base frequency/setting frequency), and then centralizing the processing of DU and borrowing The base station is virtualized by real-time cloud operation, which can make resource management more efficient and the network more flexible; and then further evolve to Service-Aware RAN, combining communication and information technology, which can be applied in regions Advertising, virtual reality, games, pre-delivered content and other services.


3.2 NTT DoCoMo
  NTT DoCoMo plans to showcase the 5G network at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, so it is actively cooperating with various equipment manufacturers. At present, NTT DoCoMo has put forward several 5G technology priorities, including Phantom cell, Flexible duplex, Massive MIMO, NOMA (Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access), etc. In the development of Phantom Cell technology, it is emphasized that MacroCell uses low-frequency signals to provide high coverage and transmits control signals between small cells, while Small Cell uses high-frequency signals to transmit user signals. At this stage, the frequency range of high-frequency signals is still under discussion. , Including the use of high frequency bands above 10GHz is also under consideration.


  In the development of Massive MIMO, NTT DoCoMo designed the Small Cell to be equipped with a 10x10 antenna, equivalent to 100 antenna elements. It uses high-precision beamforming and beam scanning technology to transmit signals to users. In addition to improving coverage, It can also improve the efficiency of spectrum usage. NTT DoCoMo proposed combining Phantom Cell and Massive MIMO together. It believes that Massive MIMO is very necessary for small cells in high frequency bands, because this can increase the coverage of small cells and provide higher transmission rates in dense areas.


3.3 China Mobile
  China Mobile's 5G network must meet the three major characteristics of high efficiency, high speed, and intelligence to meet the rapid growth of data traffic in the next ten years, users' demand for optical fiber speed, zero-latency use experience, and the connection of hundreds of billions of devices. In terms of time-point planning, China Mobile will study the requirements, system architecture, and key technologies of 5G networks by 2015, and put into standard formulation in 2016-2018, and put into experimental network construction after 2018. China Mobile’s 5G technology development focuses on the two concepts of Green and Soft, among which Green emphasizes reducing energy consumption (such as building the first new green environmental protection base station around Beijing, supporting 3G/4G dual mode. This base station is free from the past Relying on traditional electricity, combining wind and solar energy with hydrogen fuel cells to achieve self-circulation of natural energy and zero emissions) and improve network efficiency (starting from basic theories, combining actual networks to establish a unified network architecture) .


  Soft is based on C-RAN, combined with centralized baseband processing, high-speed optical transmission network and distributed remote wireless modules to form a green, centralized processing, collaborative radio, and cloud computing wireless connection. Into the network architecture. Through C-RAN, the network will support 10~1,000 cells, multiple cells can be sorted and processed at the same time, and processing resources can be integrated into the cloud, and compared with 3G network construction costs, it can save 15% of CAPEX and 50% OPE, deployment time can also be saved by 1/3, which can save 71% of energy consumption compared with traditional RAN System.


4. 5G market size
4.1 Potential users in the 5G market
  In 2015, the number of global mobile phone users was 7.25 billion, of which mobile broadband users were about 2.86 billion (approximately 39%). There is still a lot of room for market penetration. In addition, observing the gap between mobile phone and mobile broadband users from 2011 to 2020, there is an average annual gap of about 4 billion between the two. This shows that the mobile broadband user market has huge growth potential. It is estimated that global mobile broadband users will reach 5.8 billion households, with a compound growth rate of 17% from 2011 to 2020. The mobile broadband users cover 3G and 4G, among which 4G users are the fastest potential group to switch to 5G networks.

Figure 1 Changes in the number of global mobile broadband users
Figure 1 Changes in the number of global mobile broadband users

4.2 Potential 5G equipment market scale
  In the 5G era, smart phones, tablet computers, sensors, communication modules, and large and small base stations are all major products that play the roles of data transmission and reception respectively. Due to the popularity of smart mobile devices, it is estimated that smart phones and tablets will still be the main vehicles when users use services in the future. The current market demand for smart mobile devices is estimated. The first wave of 5G smart devices in 2020 Mobile devices will come from the conversion of 4G, the market size of smart phones is about 11.3 billion US dollars, and tablet computers are 860 million US dollars. In the base station part, under the current 4G network architecture, macro cell is still the main type of base station construction, focusing on improving the speed of mobile data network; under the 5G network architecture, due to the huge base station All have been built to the same extent. At this time, the emphasis is on providing each user and terminal with high-speed and stable network connections. With the layout planning of important international players, small base stations will be widely used in various fields. Become a key potential product in the 5G era.


  In the formulation of the 3GPP standard, small base stations have been included in the standard discussion since Release 8, which mainly focused on the issue of interference between cells (base stations); Release 9 emphasizes the network deployment of local areas and homes. Build how to import new base stations; Release 10 discusses the HetNet (Heterogeneous Network) network interference problem between Macro cells and small base stations to effectively configure the signal configuration between macro cells and small base stations; Release 12 discussion The focus is on the optimization of small base stations, signal enhancement, and how to build small base stations in dense areas. Since there are standards for small base stations at all times, it shows that small base stations are in the 5G mobile communications industry. For key products, it is estimated that 5GSmall Cell will reach US$1.2 billion in 2020 and grow to US$6.3 billion in 2030.

  In terms of the demand for the Internet of Things, the current development of the Internet of Vehicles is relatively fast. Among them, the two major U.S. operators Verizon Wireless and AT&T have entered the Internet of Vehicles market since 2014. From the beginning, they have locked in car manufacturers such as GM, BMW, Honda, and Toyota. , Audi, Volvo, etc., and later extended to the car after-installation market, breaking the previous model of buying a new car to enjoy car networking services, and this directly expanded the market scale of car networking.

  Since the Internet of Vehicles service is provided by mobile communication access modules, the expansion of the Internet of Vehicles market from the pre-installation market to the after-installation market will help increase the overall shipments of mobile communications access modules. The market size is estimated to reach US$2.2 billion in 2020 and US$37 billion in 2030.


Figure 2 Estimated market size of 5G equipment

5 Conclusion
  To meet the 5G application scenario, mobile communication networks will have three major development priorities, namely, the improvement of network coverage, higher transmission rate, and increase in capacity. In order to meet these three goals, 5G technology is geared towards large bandwidth, The development of six major demand goals including large connection, high transmission, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption.

  In order to improve 5G transmission speed, capacity, coverage, etc., antenna technology has become an essential element for major players to achieve 5G goals. At present, NTT DoCoMo and SK Telecom are focusing on the development of multi-antenna technology and applying it in small cells or in The signal transmission range in the high frequency band is increased. In addition, the 5G network architecture will be converted to centralized processing of the baseband to reduce the construction cost. At the same time, combined with cloud processing technology, the network architecture can be effectively configured, including control of each small cell, and with network virtualization. concept.

  On the scale of the 5G market, the first wave of major 5G users will be converted from 4G users, and the distribution countries will be concentrated in the United States, Japan, South Korea, and advanced European countries. In the 5G equipment market, smart phones will still be the largest products, but in terms of compound growth rate, communication modules in the Internet of Vehicles have the most growth potential.

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